From the Hart: Jets Friday Six-Pack

Written by Andy Hart on November 20, 2009 – 5:28 pm -

No truth to the rumor that Bill Belichick is planning on punting immediately after receiving the opening kickoff against the Jets on Sunday in an effort to prove just how much confidence he has in his defense. Oh, wait, we’ve moved on from last Sunday night? Sure we have! And there could be no better opponent for this week than the loud-mouthed, teary-eyed Gang Green in what used to be the Patriots biggest rivalry game. New York comes to town with its season hanging by a thread, the same thread that its emotional head coach is hanging from. (Rex Ryan hanging from a thread? That has to be the world’s strongest thread!) Anyway it’s a return to the AFC East for a bounce back battle with the Jets at Gillette Stadium. Rodney Harrison’s not walking through that door. Tedy Bruschi’s not walking through that door. But like the rest of Patriots Nation, they’ll be watching to see how New England responds to last Sunday night’s emotional loss. With that in mind here’s another blood-boiling Friday Six-Pack to hold us over until Sunday’s 4:15 kickoff. Please, consume responsibly.

1.  Bounce back – We’re all waiting to see how everyone responds to last Sunday’s deflating defeat. Is the defense burning to prove itself or sulking over the lack of confidence Belichick showed in the unit? Will fans cheer or boo Belichick in Foxborough? (Rhetorical question, save your emails.) My guess is that New England will bounce back in a big way focused on beating up on the Jets for an endless number of reasons. Revenge. Hate. Embarrassment. Kevin O’Connell. All the motivating factors are there for an emotional, rallying victory before the home crowd. And that’s what I think we’ll see.

2.  Man up – What is man coverage? Does it come with safety help? That’s the question that’s been raging since Darrelle Revis virtually shut down Randy Moss in the first meeting between these teams. The Jets match up Revis almost exclusively with opponents’ No. 1 receiver. That’s Moss. But could New York decide to have Revis run with Wes Welker, while using more double-teams on Moss? They did that for the most part last year when Ty Law ran with Moss but got plenty of safety help. Revis, considered by his coach and others to be the best corner in the game, appears intent on proving how good he is. I’m sure Moss would like nothing more than to embarrass the impressive youngster. If they get the chance to battle, it should be fun to watch, regardless of what kind of safety help is over the top.

3.  Under pressure – The Jets bring great, overload pressure blitzes to opposing quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez is under huge pressure as a rookie QB in New York. And I expect the Patriots to bring some pressure to him on the field on Sunday. The Patriots will be under pressure to reestablish themselves in the division and the conference. That’s a lot of pressure coming together at one time in one place. Thankfully for New England Tom Brady has made a living under pressure. I would be shocked if he doesn’t do that again. The Jets have a good defense, so it won’t be easy. But look for New England, with a healthy Welker this time around, to have more success on offense than it did in the first meeting. And look for the team’s defensive pressure and rebuilt confidence to literally score some points both with its coach and for the home team.

4.  D-man? – This is a week about questions. Right call or wrong? Confidence or none? Which player will step up and assume the biggest leadership role on defense? Jerod Mayo, a captain, did that with his comments on Thursday. I think his fellow captain, Vince Wilfork, will help do the same on the field on Sunday. The Jets want to run the ball with Thomas Jones. Wilfork has made his name stopping the run. I generally give him and his teammates the edge in most matchups with decent-to-good running games. Mayo didn’t play the first time around. He’s back. The defense will get the job done against the run and in terms of confidence, with Wilfork and Mayo leading the charger in both areas.

5.  Health update – The Patriots injury list is as long as it is illustrious. While the team has avoided many season-ending injuries – and stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss seem to be on there in name only — the walking wounded have been many in recent weeks. But there seems to be good news on the horizon for Matt Light, Sammy Morris and Ty Warren. Julian Edelman should be ready for a little bit more action this week. The biggest questions will be with the injuries from the Colts game, including Tully Banta-Cain, Stephen Neal and Rob Ninkovich. Ideally this team is turning the corner on injuries where more guys are returning to action than are being lost to it. We’ll get a better idea of that on Sunday afternoon. It will be especially interesting to see the situation on the offensive line. If Light is back does he return to start at left tackle? Belichick has said that’s his ideal position. But Sebastian Vollmer has played well of late. Could Nick Kaczur get the boot to the bench? The status for the group at three spots would seem up in the air heading into a big division battle with a very good defense. All those blitzes and some changes to the offensive line? That’s a little scary.

6. Wes/Edwards effect – Both the Jets and Patriots will have key weapons in the passing game that were missing the first time around. Welker is back and healthy. He’s making plays and has caught a ton of passes. He makes the offense much more difficult to defend. That also pushes Edelman to a more complementary role than the one he had back in Week 2 when he caught eight passes and was thrown to 16 times. New York has added Braylon Edwards to the mix since that first meeting. He’s third on the team with 16 catches going for 261 yards. He’s tied for the team lead with two touchdowns. He’s averaging and impressive 16.9 yards a catch despite his longest reception going for 41 yards. He’s the No. 1 target the Jets wanted. He challenges a defense in ways the Jets couldn’t in the first meeting. I don’t think Edwards is an elite talent, certainly nothing like Reggie Wayne, but he does make New York’s offense more formidable to stop as a whole. Which receiver has a bigger impact in his first chance at this rivalry this season? My vote goes with Welker.

Prediction:
As you’ve probably surmised in reading the six points of the Six-Pack, I really like the Patriots in this one. I think New York is the perfect opponent this week in terms of emotion and focus. It’s a division game. It’s a revenge game on many levels. It’s a rookie quarterback. I look for Tom Brady to make plays once again through the air and Welker to be a big part of that. I look for the Patriots to run the ball a little bit more, maybe with Morris in the lead role. And I do think the defense will bounce back, including a likelihood of making some big plays against New York and the rookie Sanchez. Sacks? A couple turnovers? Maybe even a score. This will be an emotional day with the Patriots celebrating all the way. Something in the range of a 31-13 Patriots win sounds good to me!

What do you think? Will this be a good bounce back game? Which matchup do you think the Patriots can most exploit? Which matchup is most concerning to you? Let us know with a comment below!


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7 Comments to “From the Hart: Jets Friday Six-Pack”

  1. TG in NJ Says:

    still love that Paul has 5 points but Andy has a 6 pack, nice.
    I think this game will be closer that you think, the
    jets are pissed too, maybe Cryan’s tears will motivate them, we know Revis is motivated. And the Pats are banged up on defense.
    Don ‘t be surprised. You’ve predicted convincing wins before and it hasn’t always played out as you say there Mr. Kenyan.

  2. Andy Hart Says:

    I know, my predictions have been a bit off. Like last week, I was sitting pretty in the fourth quarter only to see it fall apart. But I’ll be honest, if the Patriots have a dogfight on their hands this Sunday they may not be the football team I thought they were.

  3. dick goodwin Says:

    1 - The Patriots GOT that first down!
    2 - The odds (79% to 70%)said Bill B. made the right call - no matter what the outcome.
    3 - The Patriots are not demoralized - they are mad. And, the whiny Jets will pay the price this week.

  4. Angel Arroyo Says:

    I think that the Patriots and Saints matchup next Monday night will be the key matchup for the New England Patriots this season because they matchup so perfectly in terms of the offenses. Hands down the Patriots have a better deffense than the Saints. And I can see these two teams meating in SuperBowl 44. Last weeks game against the Colts was a preview of this years AFC Championchip game mock my words it will happen. I think that New England has a very good shot at going to the SuperBowl this year if they can win the rest of their games this season.

  5. nrak Says:

    i think that the patriots will win and it will be obvious in the 4th quarter but i think it may be a bit closer than we all think mayb a 34-20 game or so give or take

  6. Lawrence in Oregon Says:

    Too much D on both sides.

    Pats 17 Jets 6

  7. Søren Says:

    got to leave the score predictions to the expert, respect.

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