Top 7 Boom-or-Bust Draft Prospects

Written by Andy Hart on April 23, 2009 – 1:59 pm -

Here’s a list of guys I just can’t come to grips on. Are they destined for NFL stardom or draft bust infamy? I’m not sure and I feel like a strong argument can be made for either. I’d be scared to draft these guys and almost as equally as scared to pass on them.

1 – T Andre Smith, Alabama. It’s hard to argue with Smith’s physical abilities and game film. He’s an athletic and at times a dominant offensive lineman. He might be the anchor of some line for the next decade. But he’s also shown endless immaturity since his college career came to an end with a bowl game suspension. He went AWOL at the Combine, has gone back-and-forth with agents and has bungled his way out of the top five. Which Andre Smith will end up in the NFL? Only time will tell.

2 – TE Cornelius Ingram, Florida. Ingram did not play last fall after tearing an ACL in camp. He’s got all the tools to be a pass-catching playmaker if he returns to full health and maintains his pre-injury athleticism. He has a huge upside and could end up the best tight end in the class. But the injury makes him a risky pick and teams don’t have the film to show that he’s recovered totally. He made plays in space before the injury and even a slight limitation to his speed/quickness could be a huge detriment to his game.

3 – RB Chris “Beanie” Wells. Clearly has the size, speed and production combination worthy of a first-round pick. In fact he’s easily the best back, on paper, in the draft. But that doesn’t always translate to the field. There are serious doubts about his toughness and durability. He also doesn’t really run with the power and aggressive style that you’d expect from a man of his size. Could be a Pro Bowler or frustrating underachiever.

4 – WR Michael Crabtree. Seeing what Crabtree did over the last two seasons at Texas Tech you’d think there’d be pretty much nothing to question. Not so fast my friends. There are doubts about Crabtree’s attitude (the adjective diva has been used), he hasn’t run a 40 due to a foot injury, comes from a crazy spread offense and wide receiver is always a risky proposition near the top of the first round. Just when all those things scare you to death, though, you watch him play again and see nothing but a pure stud playmaker. Therein lies his placement on this list. And if he ends up in Oakland, forget any chance he ever has of being great.

5 – DE/OLB Brian Orakpo, Texas. I came away from the Combine thoroughly impressed with the Longhorns’ freak. He looks the part and has all the measurables. He’s a beast and I liked his attitude. But I also fell in love with Vernon Gholston in Indy. Orakpo isn’t necessarily the football player you’d expect based on his numbers. There are questions about his consistency and effort at times on the field. He has the tools to be a Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL. But he’s still very raw. Call it the Post Gholston Stress Syndrome, but I’m a bit scared of Orakpo’s downside while still lusting after his upside potential.

6 – DE/OLB Connor Barwin, Cincinnati. Mike Vrabel’s clone is an intriguing prospect for any 3-4 team. He had one very good year at defensive end for Cincinnati after beginning his career as a tight end. He’s a great athlete and a hard worker. He could develop into a very good NFL player. But I’m not sure he deserves the first-day draft hype he’s received. He’s not a very proven defensive talent at this point and would be asked to play linebacker at the NFL level. His inexperience really shows up in his lack of pass rush moves. I’m as intrigued by his versatility and projected abilities as much as anyone. I just prefer to stick with more proven talents in the early parts of the draft. Barwin is far from proven at this point and may never actually get to where scouts project him to end up.

7 – TE Jared Cook, South Carolina. Cook wasn’t overly productive for the Gamecocks and may be more a physical/athletic specimen than he is a football player. Or he may have been held back by QB issues for his team in college and could blossom in a pro offense. He’s a freak not a football player. More often than not those guys never live up to their athletic ability. But every once in a while they turn into stars.

Want to call me out? Think I’m off the mark with these evaluations? Did I miss anyone? Leave a comment below and set me straight!



Posted in Draft (2009) |

4 Comments to “Top 7 Boom-or-Bust Draft Prospects”

  1. Olly Says:

    I would add Michael Johnson to the list of boom/bust prospects as well as Jeremy Maclin. Basically any prospect who is raw and has lots of potential .I read this article from Mike Tanier at football outsiders who makes a few great points (firstly about the pointlessness of mock drafts, and then about where a draft pick ends up and how he is developed is much more important than who he was at the beginning of the process)

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2009/walkthrough-made-not-born

    Anyway have a read.

  2. Scott Says:

    I completely agree that Barwin is a big risk, but I want him at 34 anyways. Read that article from Football Outsiders and think of him in the role of Sack Man. Give him a year to learn the system and he could be amazing. :)

  3. Chris from Stamford Says:

    I’m on the Connor Barwin bandwagon, but I understand the wariness of drafting him high. Still, he seems like he’d have some value late on Day One, especially where the Pats pick later in Round 2. There’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t be able to make the switch to a mulit-functional outside linebacker in a 3-4, it would just take some time.

  4. Andrew Says:

    When it comes to Barwin, who I think is probably the most popular player among Patriots fans, two stats stand out the most to me. This is from the CBS Sports scouting profile:

    “Barwin made 50 of his plays vs. the run, holding the opposition to minus 15 yards (-0.30 ypc), the lowest rushing yardage total allowed by a Bowl Division defensive lineman in 2008 … Also stopped ball carriers at the line of scrimmage for no gain on seven of those carries … Thirteen of his hits came on third-down running plays, collecting six stops inside the red zone, including four on goal-line plays … The Bearcats ranked 28th in the country and third in the Big East with a 112.92 pass defense efficiency rating … That was thanks to Barwin, who allowed only 2-of-32 passes targeted into his area (6.06 percent) to be completed for minus 11 yards (only player in college football to hold an opponent to minus yardage during the 2008 season) … Made 21 of his pass play stops on third-down snaps and also delivered six fourth-down hits.”

    That means Barwin is phenomenal against both the run and the pass. Unlike most college DEs, he can drop into coverage effectively. He’s not just good or great, but truly elite. Oh, and he led in sacks his first year on defense. I guess he get to the passer, too. I understand not wanting a one-year starter in the first, but if he’s available at 34, he’s a potential steal.

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