Check out Kirsch Words on Monday, November 30th starting at 7:30pm for live in-game commentary as the Patriots take on the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome.

For the second time in three weeks the Patriots get to go on the road to prove themselves against an undefeated team. As they go fourth to New Orleans (get it, go fourth?) they face a huge challenge against Saints team that is probably more balanced than people give it credit for. It’s an ESPN Monday Night affair, so fans will get plenty of Jon Gruden’s faces, jokes and player praising on TV. But on the field New England will have the challenge of its season as it works to forge forward toward another possible postseason run. A big step in that direction could come with a return trip to a place where the team competed in three past Super Bowls and won its first title. Until kickoff of Monday night’s much-hyped affair in the Big Easy, snack on this post-holiday edition of the Friday Six-Pack.

1.  Killer Bs – Tom Brady has always been neck-and-neck with Peyton Manning as the best QB in the game. But Drew Brees has made a nice run in the last couple years to push himself into sole possession of the No. 3 slot as the NFL’s top passer. Both guys will be on full display Monday night with the weight of their teams’ winning hopes on their shoulders. Both can air it out and will their team to victory. Is Brees really in the class of Brady and Manning? He’ll have a chance to prove it in this prime time battle of franchise quarterback.

2.  Run D – For all the talk of Brees and his passing offense, the Saints sport a pretty formidable running attack. New England will have to stop the New Orleans committee that’s gotten production from Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush as the team averages 4.8 yards a carry and 154.3 yards a game on the ground. The key is stopping the ground effort without any real scheme adjustments or extra personnel. The passing game is too good to spend too much time worrying about the run. Luckily, Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo lead a rush defense that’s generally pretty good at keeping opponents in check. The two captains will be asked to step up and perform at a high level once again. Conversely the Saints can be run on, allowing 4.6 per carry. So the Patriots might be able to get a bit more balanced in the coming weeks with a return to health at running back and this game could be a chance to show that.

3.  Indoor ‘hawks – The Saints have been a ball hawking defense all year, led by Darren Sharper’s big-play abilities. But the Patriots have also done a good job taking the football away in recent weeks with six interceptions in two games. Given the passing attacks in question, both defenses will have chances to get their hands on the football. Whichever can get the turnover tally to sway in their direction will have a huge leg up in winning this game.

4.  Second half  – The Saints have started some games a bit slowly this year and then still ended up blowing people out. The Patriots have gotten some first-half leads but been unable to finish. So regardless of what this game looks like at halftime, it could very well be decided in the final 30 minutes. Will the Saints surge in the second half, including a fourth quarter in which they’ve score 105 points while allowing just 24? Will the Patriots finish the job if they get a lead? Sometimes fans feel the urge to shut these night games off during the halftime show, but I would advise against that this time around. Just take call in sick on Tuesday, which is exactly what Patriots fans will be if the team lets a game slip away in the second half yet again!

5.  Quality vs. Quantity – New England’s passing attack is built primarily on two guys – Randy Moss and Wes Welker – catching the football. While New Orleans doesn’t have that type of top-end talent, Brees has a wide array of proven weapons to throw to. Bush is dangerous out of the backfield. Robert Meachem is catching on as a big-play guy and scoring machine. Marques Colston is the leading target with 44 catches and six scores. Devery Henderson is capable. Lance Moore is a slot option. Jeremy Shockey is dangerous at tight end. Get the picture? Across the board the Patriots pass defense has its hands full. New Orleans challenge in the defensive backfield is a bit more obvious, Moss and Welker. Which wins out in the end, quality or quantity at receiver?

6. Dome-field advantage – The Patriots have fond memories of the Superdome thanks to Super Bowl XXXVI. But the Saints really do enjoy a nice home field advantage. The 10-0 team is undefeated at home this season. (Crazy stuff, huh!) Sharper put the odds of Saints fans being drunk by the 8:30 kickoff at 100-percent. They’ll be liquored up and ready to root on their team. It will be loud. The Patriots will have plenty to deal with in terms of communication along the offensive line – regardless of who plays for the banged-up group. The Patriots got out to a lead on the road against the Colts, but let the crowd back into it later in the game. Getting a lead would be a big boost on both the scoreboard and in the ear drums for New England in this one. Otherwise the Saints could stir their well-oiled fans up into a prime time frenzy.

Prediction:
After a tough run of luck in these predictions I think I deserve to brag about last week’s. I hit that shiz-nit dead on, missing the final score by just a single point. Played out just like I thought, baby! Using my new-found confidence in this area, I think this is an interesting matchup. The comparisons to the Colts game are also interesting. I expect the Patriots defense to be more than competitive with Brees passing game and create some turnover chances. There is no Reggie Wayne-like presence on the field in this one. I think New England’s depth on defense, especially in the back end will be on full display. I expect it to step up to the challenge of the night and match up with New Orleans’ depth on offense. Offensively I will forever believe that as long as they’re healthy Brady, Moss and Welker will move the ball and put up points. No brain surgery here, but turnovers are the key. If New England wins the turnover battle they win this game. The Saints only chance is to hold onto the ball better and take it away more often. I don’t think that happens, so I think the Patriots win this with a score in the range of 34-27. As I said above, I expect this game to be settled in the second half and for the first time this year I expect to see the Patriots actually close out a victory against a good team on the road in a hostile environment.

Are Brees and the Saints for real or will Brady and the Patriots teach them an AFC-style lesson? What scares you most about this matchup? Let us know with a comment below!

Patriots Football Weekly’s Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Fred Kirsch offers his "Kirsch Words" blog which features in-game commentary during the Patriots home game against the New York Jets beginning at 3:15pm ET. Read his commentary and notes as he blogs before, during and after the game.
 

No truth to the rumor that Bill Belichick is planning on punting immediately after receiving the opening kickoff against the Jets on Sunday in an effort to prove just how much confidence he has in his defense. Oh, wait, we’ve moved on from last Sunday night? Sure we have! And there could be no better opponent for this week than the loud-mouthed, teary-eyed Gang Green in what used to be the Patriots biggest rivalry game. New York comes to town with its season hanging by a thread, the same thread that its emotional head coach is hanging from. (Rex Ryan hanging from a thread? That has to be the world’s strongest thread!) Anyway it’s a return to the AFC East for a bounce back battle with the Jets at Gillette Stadium. Rodney Harrison’s not walking through that door. Tedy Bruschi’s not walking through that door. But like the rest of Patriots Nation, they’ll be watching to see how New England responds to last Sunday night’s emotional loss. With that in mind here’s another blood-boiling Friday Six-Pack to hold us over until Sunday’s 4:15 kickoff. Please, consume responsibly.

1.  Bounce back – We’re all waiting to see how everyone responds to last Sunday’s deflating defeat. Is the defense burning to prove itself or sulking over the lack of confidence Belichick showed in the unit? Will fans cheer or boo Belichick in Foxborough? (Rhetorical question, save your emails.) My guess is that New England will bounce back in a big way focused on beating up on the Jets for an endless number of reasons. Revenge. Hate. Embarrassment. Kevin O’Connell. All the motivating factors are there for an emotional, rallying victory before the home crowd. And that’s what I think we’ll see.

2.  Man up – What is man coverage? Does it come with safety help? That’s the question that’s been raging since Darrelle Revis virtually shut down Randy Moss in the first meeting between these teams. The Jets match up Revis almost exclusively with opponents’ No. 1 receiver. That’s Moss. But could New York decide to have Revis run with Wes Welker, while using more double-teams on Moss? They did that for the most part last year when Ty Law ran with Moss but got plenty of safety help. Revis, considered by his coach and others to be the best corner in the game, appears intent on proving how good he is. I’m sure Moss would like nothing more than to embarrass the impressive youngster. If they get the chance to battle, it should be fun to watch, regardless of what kind of safety help is over the top.

3.  Under pressure – The Jets bring great, overload pressure blitzes to opposing quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez is under huge pressure as a rookie QB in New York. And I expect the Patriots to bring some pressure to him on the field on Sunday. The Patriots will be under pressure to reestablish themselves in the division and the conference. That’s a lot of pressure coming together at one time in one place. Thankfully for New England Tom Brady has made a living under pressure. I would be shocked if he doesn’t do that again. The Jets have a good defense, so it won’t be easy. But look for New England, with a healthy Welker this time around, to have more success on offense than it did in the first meeting. And look for the team’s defensive pressure and rebuilt confidence to literally score some points both with its coach and for the home team.

4.  D-man? – This is a week about questions. Right call or wrong? Confidence or none? Which player will step up and assume the biggest leadership role on defense? Jerod Mayo, a captain, did that with his comments on Thursday. I think his fellow captain, Vince Wilfork, will help do the same on the field on Sunday. The Jets want to run the ball with Thomas Jones. Wilfork has made his name stopping the run. I generally give him and his teammates the edge in most matchups with decent-to-good running games. Mayo didn’t play the first time around. He’s back. The defense will get the job done against the run and in terms of confidence, with Wilfork and Mayo leading the charger in both areas.

5.  Health update – The Patriots injury list is as long as it is illustrious. While the team has avoided many season-ending injuries – and stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss seem to be on there in name only — the walking wounded have been many in recent weeks. But there seems to be good news on the horizon for Matt Light, Sammy Morris and Ty Warren. Julian Edelman should be ready for a little bit more action this week. The biggest questions will be with the injuries from the Colts game, including Tully Banta-Cain, Stephen Neal and Rob Ninkovich. Ideally this team is turning the corner on injuries where more guys are returning to action than are being lost to it. We’ll get a better idea of that on Sunday afternoon. It will be especially interesting to see the situation on the offensive line. If Light is back does he return to start at left tackle? Belichick has said that’s his ideal position. But Sebastian Vollmer has played well of late. Could Nick Kaczur get the boot to the bench? The status for the group at three spots would seem up in the air heading into a big division battle with a very good defense. All those blitzes and some changes to the offensive line? That’s a little scary.

6. Wes/Edwards effect – Both the Jets and Patriots will have key weapons in the passing game that were missing the first time around. Welker is back and healthy. He’s making plays and has caught a ton of passes. He makes the offense much more difficult to defend. That also pushes Edelman to a more complementary role than the one he had back in Week 2 when he caught eight passes and was thrown to 16 times. New York has added Braylon Edwards to the mix since that first meeting. He’s third on the team with 16 catches going for 261 yards. He’s tied for the team lead with two touchdowns. He’s averaging and impressive 16.9 yards a catch despite his longest reception going for 41 yards. He’s the No. 1 target the Jets wanted. He challenges a defense in ways the Jets couldn’t in the first meeting. I don’t think Edwards is an elite talent, certainly nothing like Reggie Wayne, but he does make New York’s offense more formidable to stop as a whole. Which receiver has a bigger impact in his first chance at this rivalry this season? My vote goes with Welker.

Prediction:
As you’ve probably surmised in reading the six points of the Six-Pack, I really like the Patriots in this one. I think New York is the perfect opponent this week in terms of emotion and focus. It’s a division game. It’s a revenge game on many levels. It’s a rookie quarterback. I look for Tom Brady to make plays once again through the air and Welker to be a big part of that. I look for the Patriots to run the ball a little bit more, maybe with Morris in the lead role. And I do think the defense will bounce back, including a likelihood of making some big plays against New York and the rookie Sanchez. Sacks? A couple turnovers? Maybe even a score. This will be an emotional day with the Patriots celebrating all the way. Something in the range of a 31-13 Patriots win sounds good to me!

What do you think? Will this be a good bounce back game? Which matchup do you think the Patriots can most exploit? Which matchup is most concerning to you? Let us know with a comment below!