OK, I’ll admit. I was as stunned as the rest of you when I saw that the Pats only got a second-round pick for Cassel. Then they added Vrabel to the deal and that made it even more puzzling.

But here’s how I’m seeing it now that the shock has worn off a bit …

Tom Brady must be fine.

This is perhaps the most important notion to consider. My doubts about his knee haven’t completely evaporated, but they been significantly diminished as a result of this deal. The fact that it happened so quickly, as we correctly predicted on PFW in Progress this past week, indicates to me that the Pats are confident about the progress Number 12 is making in his rehab.

I won’t be fully convinced until I see him running around on the football field again (May, at the earliest), but this trade signifies that he’s well on his way.

The market didn’t call for a 1st round pick.

Tough as this may be to swallow, Pats fans, we kind of saw this coming. When Andy and I were at the Combine last week, we starting hearing how teams like Chicago and San Francisco were talking about sticking with the guys they had (Orton, Hill, respectively). Then Minnesota decides to trade for the guy they wanted last year, Rosenfels, so that narrowed the market down considerably.

I still would’ve thought Detroit, with their two 1sts, would be interested … but I guess “Schwartzie” wants to use those picks to select the building blocks of his new team. That means Daunte Culpepper is his starter, barring the signing of another free agent on the market, none of whom would be as good as Cassel. Or perhaps he’s already sold on Matthew Stafford. Fine. I can live with that.

I thought Carolina would be the ultimate destination for Cassel, and the trade would involve Julius Peppers somehow, instead of a 1st-rounder, which would have been fine with me as well. But I can only assume that either the Panthers are happy with Jake Delhomme or they wanted too much for Peppers in addition to Cassel.

That left only the Chiefs as the remaining serious contender for Cassel’s services, and when it’s a buyer’s market, the seller usually has to concede.

 This had nothing to do with friendship.

Football is a game, but it’s also a big business. I don’t believe for a minute that Bill Belichick gave Scott Pioli any sort of discount because of their relationship. Market forces had everything to do with this transaction.

Vrabel’s days were numbered.

On the surface, it looked to me like Vrabel wasn’t going to be around Foxborough much longer anyway. Rather than ignominiously cutting a guy who helped them win three Super Bowls, the Patriots probably felt it was more appropriate and respectful to Vrabel to make him part of a memorable deal that will go down in team history, one way or the other. If that’s the case, I think it was the right move.

What if Cassel falls flat in KC?

I don’t think that will happen because I think he’s the real deal. But let’s just say Cassel turns out to be a one-year wonder, ala Derek Anderson or (perish the thought) Scott Mitchell. All of a sudden, the Pats look like the ones who committed highway robbery, netting a day-one draft pick for a one-and-done QB.

Peppers is still an option.

I don’t believe the Pats are done dealing. Something tells me a Peppers trade could still be worked out … and who knows, maybe Carolina wants a couple of second-round picks as part of any deal. New England suddenly has three of them with which to bargain. As Andy mentioned, the Cassel-Vrabel trade cleared some hefty cap space, which the Pats might need to sign a guy like Peppers.

There’s been a lot of action already, and we’re only two days into free agency. But I think the Patriots are just getting warmed up.

As the trade of Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City just became official, I’m trying to bring you guys my gut reaction to the move. Honestly, I’m a bit torn.

First, I have to be honest with myself and say I’m a little surprised at the package in return including “just” a second-round pick. I said all along I thought you had to go for a first rounder, but apparently the market for Cassel didn’t warrent such a return on investment. That may have been heightened by the fact that teams like Minnesota, Chicago and San Francisco seemingly pulled out of the bidding pretty early on.

But getting the No. 34 pick in the draft should make the Patriots a major player on draft weekend. New England now has its first (No. 23),  three seconds and a third. Bill Belichick could also very well end up with another third through the compensatory process for the departure of Asante Samuel. Six picks in the first three rounds for Belichick certainly sounds like a good way to infuse some talented youth into the team, no? Combine that with the fact that the team’s biggest needs — cornerback, edge rusher and wide receiver — are some of the deepest in the draft, and Belichick has a great chance to fill holes and rebuild on the run.

So while I’m a little down that New England didn’t get another first and sad to see Mike Vrabel go, in the end I’m really impressed with the deal. In one fell swoop Belichick and Co. cleared some $17 million in cap room to use in free agency, got what could be a very valuable (very high) second-round pick and made the next two months of free agency and draft preparation all that much more interesting.

Sure there are questions. Who’s going to fill Vrabel’s large shoes? (Let’s not forget he’s a year removed from an All-Pro season, even if he did have a terrible 2008 campaign.) What happens in the outside chance that Tom Brady isn’t at full healthy? (Maybe a veteran signing?) Is the defense better with a bunch of young starters than it was with a veteran captain like Vrabel?

And the biggest question of all, are the Patriots done with big moves here in the early days of free agency? That Julius Peppers name seems to keep popping up. I don’t have any information to lead me to think that’s more than rumors at this point. But there sure is a lot of smoke coming from that rumor.

Anyway, just minutes after what is a very big trade with seemingly many factors involved, those are my initial reactions. Wow!

More later as I digest things a bit.

At first blush, you might think, “Why would the Patriots be interested in a player that the 0-16 Lions didn’t want anymore?”

A reasonable question. Here’s a possible answer.

Rarely do teams find starting-caliber corners who are as big or bigger than the receivers they’re asked to cover. Bodden, at 6-1, 193, is one such player. So why wouldn’t Detroit want to keep a player like that after just one season in Motown? Well, they have a new head coach who probably wants to clear some cap space as he looks to rebuild the team in his image. And Bodden, a starter for Detroit last year, saves the Lions some considerable cash.

Now, the last time New England took a former Lions starter (Fernando Bryant), it didn’t work out so well. But what Bodden has that Bryant didn’t is experience in a Bill Belichick-style defense. Bodden’s best year as a pro was 2007, when he was part of Romeo Crennel’s Cleveland Browns, who came just one win short of making the playoffs. Bodden started all 16 games while registering 76 solo tackles and six INTs.

Perhaps the Patriots feel he can flourish again in a similar system. Plus, at just 27, Bodden may have a lot of good football years left in him.

Baker would be another interesting signing (again, if reports are accurate). His receiving numbers weren’t overwhelming, but Baker has been steady for the Jets, having started nearly every game for New York the past 3 seasons.  At 6-3, 258, and 29 years old, he’s spent his entire pro career with the Jets and could inject some much-needed competition at tight end here in New England.

With the reported signings of long snapper Lonie Paxton and wide receiver Jabar Gaffney in Denver, the Patriots would be in the position of having to find replacements at those positions.

Paxton has been the Pats long snapper throughout the Belichick era, signing as a rookie free agent in 2000. Gaffney has proven to be a valuable third or fourth option in the New England passing attack since signing mid-season in 2006.

While Paxton would have been a lock to make the team, Gaffney’s job was less secure. He may have been facing a serious training camp challenge this summer from either a veteran free agent or rookie draft pick.

So, it appears he ran a safer route to Denver, where former Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the man in charge and whose offense Gaffney already knows. McDaniels will likely rely on Gaffney to be an integral part of the Broncos air attack, as it will take him less time to learn the system than it might the other receivers on the team.

New England will most likely bolster their receiving corps as indicated earlier in this post, but they’ll also have to bring in some competition for the long snapper job. Part of Pro Bowl kicker Stephen Gostkowski’s success has been the consistent Paxton providing excellent snaps to holder Chris Hanson. The long snapper’s job may not be as busy a one as others on the team, but it’s certainly a valuable one, and the Pats will have to look closely for Paxton’s replacement.

What will be even more difficult to replace is Paxton’s personality in the Pats locker room. He was one of the most colorful character this team has seen in quite some time.

If the reports are true, why would New England part with a veteran locker room and on-field leader like Mike Vrabel? Let’s consider some potential factors.

Money?

The linebacker would reportedly count just shy of $4-and-a-half million against the Pats salary cap this season. Not an outrageous sum, relatively speaking, but in this tight economy, maybe the team is looking to save a little here and a little there wherever it can. Pretty soon, those little savings could add up to a lot, thus helping to team acquire other free agents or sign draft picks this spring.

Age?

Vrabel will turn 34 during training camp. He had a career year, statistically, jsut two seasons ago, but his numbers dropped off considerably in ‘08. As a pretty well-known, Super Bowl-winning coach has been known to say, it’s better to get rid of a player too early than too late. Might this be the case with Vrabel?

Role-playing?

Vrabel has always been known as a versatile player. He was a defensive end at Ohio State before converting to an outside linebacker in the NFL. He has thrived on the outside in New England’s 3-4 defense, but has also played well on the inside when called upon in the past. And who can forget how many times he’s lined up as a tight end in goal-line situations and caught touchdowns from Tom Brady?

Yup, Vrabel can do it all, it seems. But at his age, maybe he doesn’t want to do so much anymore. I’m sure he wouldn’t mind catching TDs now and then, but playing inside linebacker is tougher on the body than playing outside. It’s conceivable that Vrabel might have been asked if he’d be willing to help out more alongside Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo this year, and his response was, “No, thanks.”

Rather than force him to do a job he wasn’t comfortable performing anymore, maybe the team decided to do him a courtesy and ship him somewhere where he’d be able to play out his days exclusively on the outside.

Again, the reports of Vrabel’s trade have yet to be confirmed, and the ideas put forth in this post are all purely speculative reasoning, but entirely plausible scenarios nonetheless, if the media accounts prove accurate.