1.  Bounce back – We’re all waiting to see how everyone responds to last Sunday’s deflating defeat. Is the defense burning to prove itself or sulking over the lack of confidence Belichick showed in the unit? Will fans cheer or boo Belichick in Foxborough? (Rhetorical question, save your emails.) My guess is that New England will bounce back in a big way focused on beating up on the Jets for an endless number of reasons. Revenge. Hate. Embarrassment. Kevin O’Connell. All the motivating factors are there for an emotional, rallying victory before the home crowd. And that’s what I think we’ll see.

2.  Man up – What is man coverage? Does it come with safety help? That’s the question that’s been raging since Darrelle Revis virtually shut down Randy Moss in the first meeting between these teams. The Jets match up Revis almost exclusively with opponents’ No. 1 receiver. That’s Moss. But could New York decide to have Revis run with Wes Welker, while using more double-teams on Moss? They did that for the most part last year when Ty Law ran with Moss but got plenty of safety help. Revis, considered by his coach and others to be the best corner in the game, appears intent on proving how good he is. I’m sure Moss would like nothing more than to embarrass the impressive youngster. If they get the chance to battle, it should be fun to watch, regardless of what kind of safety help is over the top.

3.  Under pressure – The Jets bring great, overload pressure blitzes to opposing quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez is under huge pressure as a rookie QB in New York. And I expect the Patriots to bring some pressure to him on the field on Sunday. The Patriots will be under pressure to reestablish themselves in the division and the conference. That’s a lot of pressure coming together at one time in one place. Thankfully for New England Tom Brady has made a living under pressure. I would be shocked if he doesn’t do that again. The Jets have a good defense, so it won’t be easy. But look for New England, with a healthy Welker this time around, to have more success on offense than it did in the first meeting. And look for the team’s defensive pressure and rebuilt confidence to literally score some points both with its coach and for the home team.

4.  D-man? – This is a week about questions. Right call or wrong? Confidence or none? Which player will step up and assume the biggest leadership role on defense? Jerod Mayo, a captain, did that with his comments on Thursday. I think his fellow captain, Vince Wilfork, will help do the same on the field on Sunday. The Jets want to run the ball with Thomas Jones. Wilfork has made his name stopping the run. I generally give him and his teammates the edge in most matchups with decent-to-good running games. Mayo didn’t play the first time around. He’s back. The defense will get the job done against the run and in terms of confidence, with Wilfork and Mayo leading the charger in both areas.

5.  Health update – The Patriots injury list is as long as it is illustrious. While the team has avoided many season-ending injuries – and stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss seem to be on there in name only — the walking wounded have been many in recent weeks. But there seems to be good news on the horizon for Matt Light, Sammy Morris and Ty Warren. Julian Edelman should be ready for a little bit more action this week. The biggest questions will be with the injuries from the Colts game, including Tully Banta-Cain, Stephen Neal and Rob Ninkovich. Ideally this team is turning the corner on injuries where more guys are returning to action than are being lost to it. We’ll get a better idea of that on Sunday afternoon. It will be especially interesting to see the situation on the offensive line. If Light is back does he return to start at left tackle? Belichick has said that’s his ideal position. But Sebastian Vollmer has played well of late. Could Nick Kaczur get the boot to the bench? The status for the group at three spots would seem up in the air heading into a big division battle with a very good defense. All those blitzes and some changes to the offensive line? That’s a little scary.

6. Wes/Edwards effect – Both the Jets and Patriots will have key weapons in the passing game that were missing the first time around. Welker is back and healthy. He’s making plays and has caught a ton of passes. He makes the offense much more difficult to defend. That also pushes Edelman to a more complementary role than the one he had back in Week 2 when he caught eight passes and was thrown to 16 times. New York has added Braylon Edwards to the mix since that first meeting. He’s third on the team with 16 catches going for 261 yards. He’s tied for the team lead with two touchdowns. He’s averaging and impressive 16.9 yards a catch despite his longest reception going for 41 yards. He’s the No. 1 target the Jets wanted. He challenges a defense in ways the Jets couldn’t in the first meeting. I don’t think Edwards is an elite talent, certainly nothing like Reggie Wayne, but he does make New York’s offense more formidable to stop as a whole. Which receiver has a bigger impact in his first chance at this rivalry this season? My vote goes with Welker.

Prediction:
As you’ve probably surmised in reading the six points of the Six-Pack, I really like the Patriots in this one. I think New York is the perfect opponent this week in terms of emotion and focus. It’s a division game. It’s a revenge game on many levels. It’s a rookie quarterback. I look for Tom Brady to make plays once again through the air and Welker to be a big part of that. I look for the Patriots to run the ball a little bit more, maybe with Morris in the lead role. And I do think the defense will bounce back, including a likelihood of making some big plays against New York and the rookie Sanchez. Sacks? A couple turnovers? Maybe even a score. This will be an emotional day with the Patriots celebrating all the way. Something in the range of a 31-13 Patriots win sounds good to me!

What do you think? Will this be a good bounce back game? Which matchup do you think the Patriots can most exploit? Which matchup is most concerning to you? Let us know with a comment below!

In that role as a defensive leader and spokesman, Mayo was asked to respond to the comments of one of his former teammates in the wake of Sunday night’s loss at Indy and the apparent message sent by Bill Belichick to his defense when he decided to go for the fourth-and-two rather than punt the ball away.

ESPN’s Tedy Bruschi, barely months removed from the Patriots locker room, said his blood would be boiling were he still a member of the New England defense.

“To be honest I have the ultimate respect for Tedy and everything he’s done for this organization, but he’s not in this locker room at this point in time,” Mayo said Thursday morning at Gillette Stadium. “So he doesn’t know the feelings that this defense or that this team has. We still have our confidence. We still have our swagger and we’re going to go out on Sunday and show the…media, I guess.”

Mayo said there was “never any doubt” in the defense’s collective mind that Belichick still has confidence in the unit, even if the coach’s Sunday night decision may have indicated otherwise. While many have postured in recent days that this could be a rallying cry for the unit to build upon moving forward, Mayo downplayed that angle when asked if he’d felt the need to address his teammates.

“Not really,” Mayo said. “Everybody was disappointed, especially the day after the game. It was a rough couple days for everybody but we’re over it now and we’re on to the Jets.”

While he isn’t yet inclined to address his unit, he does think it has something to prove.

“Of course. Any time you give up 35 points in a game you try to come back strong the next game. Hopefully we can get that done this week.”

Mayo has always been more about actions than words and says he will proceed as such at this seemingly tough time in the season.

“I try to lead by example. I’m not really a rah-rah guy or anything like that. I try to lead by example and hopefully the guys will follow.”

But if they don’t, and even if it doesn’t come as natural to him as it might for some other players, then Mayo has no problem voicing his opinions.

“I mean if something needs to be said, I’ll say it. I was the same way in college, same way in high school But false excitement and things like that is not the kind of person that I am. I’m a genuine person and guys that know me know that’s the way I am.”

Are you confident in the defense moving forward? Will Mayo and the group rally after Sunday’s disappointing finish? Let us know with a comment below?

As such a reporter asked Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick on Wednesday if he’d ever cried in front of his team. Belichick took a light-hearted approach to his answer.

“I’ve coached 35 years, so I’ve probably covered most all the bases,” Belichick said, bringing somewhat rare laughter to the Gillette Stadium media workroom. “I think I even swore once too.”

Belichick may have covered all the bases in this three-plus decades on the sidelines, but Ryan has gone from bravado-driven bully to a teary-eyed basket case in just a few weeks. I guess that’s just how powerful winning and losing can be in the NFL. A 3-0 record is a world-beating comedy. While 4-5 is a tear-jerking tragedy.

Both teams are coming off, in football terms, a tragedy heading into their Sunday afternoon matchup in Foxborough. Maybe both Belichick and Ryan will share a good cry together at midfield during their postgame handshake on Sunday night! I bet that would make Dick Vermeil proud!

More likely is that only one will be in the mood to cry at that point.

What do you think of a coach crying in front of his team? Honest emotion or signs of pure instability? Let us know with a comment below!

IN INDY'S GRILL - Team PFW plus BLowe spent the night before the Patriots-Colts game at the Weber Grill restaurant in Indianapolis.

INDIANAPOLIS - Here in an unseasonably warm midwest (highs have been in the 60s this weekend), Paul, Andy, BLowe, and I went to our favorite Indy eatery, the Weber Grill restaurant in the heart of downtown.

Before we got here, however, a quick story from the voyage from Gillette. Our newest PR guy, Aaron Salkin (good guy, and very good at his job), has become something of a bad-luck charm for us in terms of our transportation. During our preseason game with Washington, he was part of our bus convey when it broke down (see previous Hits the Road entry), and was with us when our bus stalled (before starting back up miraculously) from the hotel to the game in New York in Week 2.

Then, yesterday afternoon, on the way to Green Airport, the lead bus in our convoy experienced trouble and wouldn’t go faster than 35 MPH. So, the whole convoy pulls over and guess who gets bumped to the back bus … Team PFW and friends. BB and about two dozen other coaches and players piled into our bus while we jumped on board with the marketing department’s guests. The delay set us back about a half hour, but we made it to Indy in plenty of time to get to our reservation at Weber … but not before we jokingly threatened to leave Salkin on the side of the road.

BREW-HAHA - Erik's Fat Tire at the Team PFW table at Weber Grill on Saturday night.

Once at Weber, though, we were happy. Paul, Andy, and I got burgers, while BLowe ordered a brisket spread. I also enjoyed my first Fat Tire, which came in a decorative can (insert Andy joke here about liking it in the can). When was the last time you went to a nice restaurant and they served you a beer in a can????

Paul had his usual Miller Light because, let’s be honest, he has a permanent fat tire around his midsection. He was recognized, though, by a fan who stopped by our table to say hello to Paul. To which Paul  replied, after the guy left, “Now I know what it feels like to be BLowe.”

New England filled Tate’s roster spot by signing practice squader Isaiah Stanback. Stanback spent the early part of his pro career in Dallas transitioning from college QB to NFL wide receiver and returner. When he signed with the Patriots practice squad in September he was used primarily as a quarterback. Bill Belichick has said a number of times that Stanback, despite not being on the roster, has been the team’s No. 3 QB all season.

But in recent weeks Stanback has taken more reps at wide receiver and returning kicks. So his call-up gives New England depth at the positions Tate filled – WR and KR – but also on the depth chart behind Tom Brady. I get it and think it’s a smart move if Stanback can actually contribute as a pass catcher and game-ready returner.

My only question is this – what’s wrong with Terrence Nunn? Why is he consistently passed over for a promotion? He seemed to have a great training camp and good preseason. He should be up to speed in the offense thanks to his summer work and practice squad reps. He seems to have some value on special teams, at least in terms of covering kicks.

Is it simply that other guys provide more versatility? Has his development in the offense not been quick enough? I admit, I’m a big Nunn fan based on his past story and his showing this summer. I’m biased, but I’d like to see him get his chance to shine at some point. But he keeps getting passed over.

What do you think about the move and are you still concerned with the Patriots depth at WR? Let us know with a comment below!

1.  Red zone – Football math is pretty simple, 7 beats 3 every time. Both the Patriots and Colts have struggled a bit in the red zone in recent weeks. That’s the main reason that Indy’s been in close games. It’s funny to say that two of the better offenses in the game need to get better at scoring points and taking advantage of chances, but it’s true right now for these two teams. And given how competitive the games in this series have been, those red zone chances will be key on Sunday night.

2.  Third down – Manning and Brady lead the two best third-down offenses in football over the last eight years. Manning moves the chains in his sleep. Both guys extend drives, and put a ton of pressure on a defense to try and get off the field. In this matchup, the guy who can move the sticks most often will also keep his opponent from doing the same thing. Beyond points, the red zone and third down stats are two of the most important in football. They’ll be extremely pertinent in this matchup.

3.  Fraud alert! – Few people talk about it thanks to the team’s Hall of Fame passers, but Indy’s defense is tops in the league in points allowed and the Patriots are No. 2. The Colts have lost a handful of defensive starters in the last couple weeks. The Patriots are still a much-doubted, new-look group on offense. Which suspect group is more likely to match up well with its star-studded offensive opposition? I think that’ll be the Patriots. This defense in 2009 may lack the vested veterans of the past and not have the resume, but the group has gotten the job done through eight games. That’s a pretty good sampling. I think they’ll make a couple plays in this game that will go a long way toward the outcome of the game. Sure, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can make things ugly for an offense, but I have my doubts about the bodies the Colts are throwing together in the secondary. I think those boys are in for a world of hurt from Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

4.  Role out! – That brings us to our next point. Both teams, beyond their record-breaking stars, are banged up. Does Sebastian Vollmer match up better with Freeney than Jerraud Powers/Jacob Lacey do with Moss/Welker? Can Dan Connolly handle the tough environment on the road in an indoor stadium as he sets the line calls in what could be his first NFL start? Role players will have a, well, role in this game’s outcome. While the stars will get the most love afterwards, those in the shadows will have had a positive/negative effect on their respective teams. The Patriots had a number of guys make their first practice field appearance of the week on Friday (some for the first time in weeks) – Sammy Morris, Julian Edelman, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Brandon Meriweather, Eric Alexander – so exactly who is going to be available for the game remains very much up in the air. Some role player will make a huge play/mistake that will change this game, mark my words.

5.  Star power! – I heard so much about the Brady/Manning comparison this week that I had to bury it in the fifth slot of the six-pack. Why can’t we just say they’re the two best QBs of the era and two of the best to play the game? Why do we have to denigrate one of these guys just because we favor the other? Thinking Brady is better does not mean you have to think Manning stinks. They’re two of the biggest stars in the game. They’re as consistently great as just about any players in any sport in any era. They make for great rivals to be juxtaposed to the other, and we’re lucky to be watching the rivalry. Which one steps up this Sunday? The answer to that will obviously go a long way toward deciding the game.

6.  Home cooking – The Colts are a very good home team. The Patriots haven’t been too great on the road this season, as Bill Belichick has reminded his players often. Take out the game in London and New England is 0-fer on the road with losses in New York and Denver. Can the Patriots change that trend? Doing so could very well go a long way toward ensuring that any potential playoff meeting between these two takes place in the open air of New England. (Although the Colts would still have to lose at least one other game down the stretch.) Is the home field advantage (taking pumped-in music, turned-up heat and pooped-in food for what you will!) enough for the Colts to continue their big winning streak and keep the Patriots from building even more positive momentum here in the middle of the season? Let’s see how loud that sea of blue is on Sunday night. Their banged up team, and defense, could clearly use the help from the stands.

Prediction:
As the week has worn on (and as I’ve been beaten down by a barrage of Kirsch Words) I’ve gotten more and more confident that the Patriots are going to go on the road and get the job done. I just think they’re the better team right now and have the game-changing matchup in their favor – Brady, Moss and Welker against a group of young defensive backs. New England should move the ball through the air and may also find some room on the ground for Laurence Maroney to have a pretty good day. Defensively I expect to see a lot of sub packages with five, six and more defensive backs. Maybe some schemes with just one or even no defensive linemen playing with their hand on the ground. I see a lot of bodies moving around to flood the passing lanes and try to keep Manning off balance. Then you can mix in some well-timed blitzes from guys like Brandon McGowan and the other safeties. I think Dallas Clark can be taken out with some physical play at the line from either a linebacker (Adalius Thomas?) or a safety (McGowan). The Patriots have harped on playing better on the road and better in the red zone. I think they accomplish both goals in a victory that will be relatively easy and in control for most of the night – New England wins 35-23. New England’s new-look defense makes some plays to help out the offense and earn its stripes against the challenge of Peyton Manning and Co.

What do you think? Are the Patriots positioned well to knock the Colts from the ranks of the unbeatens? What matchup worries you the most? Give us a prediction and leave us a comment below?

Q: Defensively?
A: They’re good. They’re really very good. They have young players in the secondary, but the front is every bit as good as it used to be. Their nose tackle (Vince Wilfork) is having a great year. They felt good enough about their front to be able to trade (defensive end Richard) Seymour. Jerod Mayo is one of the emerging stars in this league. He is, if not already, very soon to replace Ray (Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens) as the bell weather linebacker, the poster boy linebacker, in this league, and deservedly so. They’re every bit as good as they were. The time to get them was early. Buffalo did not. They had a chance to put them away and didn’t. They have been playing pretty darned good football ever since. They lost in overtime to Denver, but they’re a good football team and an odds-on favorite to with that division.

That’s pretty high praise from one of the best personnel men in the game over the last 20-plus years. Love him or hate him, Polian knows NFL talent as well as just about any man in the game. For him to say that Mayo is soon to be the measuring stick at linebacker in the league says a lot about the young playmaker’s talent and still-emerging potential.

What do you think of the comment? Can Mayo really be the next Lewis, a true Hall of Fame talent? Let us know with a comment below.

But that’s nothing new for Peyton Manning and Co. as Indy is actually the best offense on third down dating back to 2002. The Colts have converted 47.8 percent of the time on the NFL’s money down since 2002, well ahead of the Saints and Patriots who’ve moved the chains at 43.0 percent.

The numbers have been most impressive in the last few years. Above 50-percent for the second straight year and third time in four years, Indy set an NFL record at 56.1 percent in 2006.

Beyond the obvious – Manning – what makes the Colts so good on third down and so difficult to defend? According to the players, maybe we don’t need to go beyond the obvious. It’s most directly related simply to Manning and his personnel – not tricks, schemes or anything of that nature. You see it, but more often than not on third down you can’t stop it.

The Patriots are allowing a 39.0-percent third down conversion rate this season, ranking 20th in the league.

“They have explosive receivers, a good running back and a Hall of Fame quarterback,” Adalius Thomas said. “He reads the coverage very well. If you show him something…I’m mean he’s very good at what he does. That’s what their offense is, they take what you give them. They recognize it and they get into the best thing that they can do.”

The red zone and third down will likely be the keys for the Patriots this Sunday in Indy. The challenge at hand is obvious. But that doesn’t make it any easier to succeed.

–Other numbers–

This is clearly a week in which both teams put out press releases packed with some ridiculously impressive numbers. Here are a few picked up on while flipping through the notes:

14 – The number of consecutive games that Tom Brady has won when throwing for 300 yards or more. It’s the second best streak all time trailing Johnny Unitas’ 16 straight from 1961-1969. But fourth place on the list is another active streak, one belonging to Peyton Manning who’s won 12 straight games (including seven this season) when throwing for 300 yards. Manning has thrown for 300 yards in just four of 14 career meetings with the Patriots, including November wins in Foxborough in 2005 and 2006.

45-15 – The NFL’s best road winning percentage since 2002, a mark belonging to the Colts. The Patriots are second at 43-16.

49-12 – The NFL’s best home winning percentage since 2002, a mark belonging to the Patriots. The Colts are second at 48-12.

32-12 – The NFL’s best November record since 1999, held by the Colts. Second place is Tampa at 26-14 (not for long!). The Patriots are third at 26-15.

+72 – The Colts NFL-best turnover margin dating back to 2004 (99 giveaways compared to 171 takeaways). The Patriots have the fourth-best turnover margin since 2004 at +36, half as good as the Colts mark.

Which number, streak or record have you come across in the Patriots/Colts series that’s most interesting to you? Let us know with a comment below!

MICHAELS ON THE RIVALRY: “This is the fifth time in six years that our crew has had a chance to do this game (third time on SNF, twice on MNF) and this game has been either the most anticipated or one of the most anticipated of the season. It’s one of those games when the schedule comes out and you see it you just hope each team gets out to a pretty good start and they have.  Without question, this is the rivalry of the decade.”

DUNGY ON THE RIVALRY: “From a coaching standpoint, it’s a tremendous matchup. When you play against a team like (New England), it’s such a big challenge.  It brings out the best in you and elevates your game. It’s just a tremendous rivalry.  The respect for each other is there and it’s been a great game and one I’m looking forward to seeing for the first time from a different perspective.”
 
HARRISON ON THE RIVALRY: “I’ve played in this rivalry many times. You get really excited about facing the biggest challenge of the year, which is always going to be the Indianapolis Colts.  Just being a part of one of the greatest rivalries in football really gets you excited. I know both of these teams have a mutual respect for one another, but I also know they have a distinct dislike for one another. It’ll be exciting and hopefully the Patriots can go out and kick some butt.”

MICHAELS ON COMPARING THIS RIVALRY: “This one is as good as anything I can remember. This is very similar to Dallas and San Francisco in the 90’s.”

GAUDELLI ON THE QUARTERBACK MATCHUP: “Without a doubt, besides the fact that they are two great teams, the headline of this game…is the two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Al (Michaels) and I were talking over the last week, and in any decade was there one single quarterback matchup where you can clearly say these are the two best guys? While there were a lot of great matchups in the ’90’s, ’80’s and ’70’s, we couldn’t really delineate two quarterbacks where you could say, ‘these were absolutely the two best guys.’ In this decade, I don’t think there is any question, and you can put them in any order you want — Tom Brady-Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning-Tom Brady — these are the two best quarterbacks of this decade.  They are what make this game really special on Sunday night.”

ON THE BETTER QUARTERBACK:
HARRISON: “Peyton Manning is the best pure quarterback in the National Football League but Tom Brady is my quarterback with a minute left and we’re down four points and we need a touchdown because he’s done it. Three Super Bowl rings, Super Bowl MVP, a guy whose preparation goes above and beyond anyone in that facility. It’s not very often that you find Tom Brady not prepared or ready to go. He’s my guy with a minute left.”
 
DUNGY: “I’ve been with Peyton Manning for seven years, I’ve seen him prepare and I’ve seen what he does and how he’s lead our team. There is no other quarterback that I would want, and I might see it differently if I had been with Tom Brady for seven years, but that’s the experience I had and I can’t imagine anybody running the offense and doing as much as Peyton does for the Colts.”

ON THE PATRIOTS DEFENSE TRYING TO CONFUSE MANNING:
HARRISON: “The thing that Bill (Belichick) gave us to do was to create a lot of freedom by trying to disguise the coverage. I lined up at cornerback and Ty Law lined up at safety at times which really seemed to confuse Peyton.”
 
DUNGY: “That was one of the few things that New England did that we hadn’t seen before. That was very unusual with Rodney playing corner. Usually you come into a game with New England showing a lot of blitzes, five-man pressures and then in our game they decide to rush three and drop eight or vice versa. The thing from the Colts standpoint that we’ve always admired about the Patriots is they’ve been able to have a different game plan, even for a half sometimes. You have to be ready to adjust when you play New England.”

DUNGY ON COACH CALDWELL: “He’s a little more emotional, a little more fiery…It was important to the team to transition well and not take a step backwards and that’s why everyone in our organization felt that Jim would be the best man for the job.”

DUNGY ON CALDWELL AS A FIRST YEAR COACH AGAINST BELICHICK:
“Jim obviously has the benefit; he’s not like most first year coaches. He’s been there for seven years. He’s seen it. He’s provided a lot of the game planning, especially offensively, for those however many games were played. It’s not like the new guy coming in. He’s very aware of everything that’s taken place in the last seven years. I really don’t look at this like the first year coach in the normal sense.”

HARRISON THE COLTS SECONDARY: “I look at a Colts secondary that’s in trouble. You lose Bob Sanders, which is not a big surprise for those guys because he’s missed a lot of time, but losing Marlon Jackson and Calvin Hayden. Two losses for them, especially Marlon Jackson. He’s a guy who shows up a lot in the run game. Very physical, very aggressive cornerback who can play corner, safety, nickel back, dime back, cover a tight end, a guy that’s very versatile. If you’re Tom Brady and the Patriots you’ve got to look to really exploit that secondary.”

DUNGY ON MICHAEL VICK IN BUFFALO: “That was my personal opinion. I didn’t have anything to base it on. No conversations with anyone else. There are a number of teams that are going to be looking for quarterbacks at the end of the year and, looking at their quarterback situation, I think Buffalo is one of those that’s a very good team with a lot of skill positions guys.  Any quarterback would want to play with Lee Evans and T.O. and (Marshawn) Lynch and some of the guys they have there. They haven’t gotten consistent quarterbacks playing the last three or four years. That’s probably been their Achilles heel, so I think it could be an intriguing situation.”