The big day has arrived
Today is the day my boy Antoine Cason will be running his ever-important 40-yard dash. I’ve been talking about Cason for two years now and I believe a strong 40-time will push him into the first-round, possibly to Dallas with one of its two selections in Round 1 unless they trade their entire draft for Darren McFadden. I think I may be more worried than Cason is today. Let’s face it, I have more to lose than he does.
February 26, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Tom, I’m in the UK and a fairly new listener to the PFW podcasts and it’s only been a few weeks since I found this blog page too. Please tell me why you work for the Patriots when your obviously and out and out Dallas Cowboys fan?? I hope your right about Cason however too. Thse 30 ints show he’s got a nose for the football! My point of view is too much stock from the combine is taken into account! In my eyes it’s how a player looks on film that matters!
Mark in the UK.
February 26, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Looks like he ran a 4.49. Wow, that’s sooooo slow.
February 26, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Hey Tom what do you think of Rogers-Cromartie? He just ran a 4.28 and had an impressive Senior Bowl.
February 26, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Mark,
I was a big Cowboys fan growing up so it’s logical that I still follow the team to some extent. I didn’t say Cason would go to Dallas because I’m a Cowboys fan, I said it because their pass defense is God-awful and that’s around the spot I expect Sason to be drafted. I can’t help who I rooted for as a kid. My dream was to be a sport’s journalist, not work for the Dallas Cowboys. I think I’m more than non-bias, as I trash Dallas more than any team in the NFL because they are a terrible franchise. Let’s put it this way, almost everyone knows I grew up rooting for Dallas and I’ve never been called a Cowboys-homer by anyone, so I think I call it like I see it.
Christian,
I have never seen Tennessee State play. He obviously looks good but we’ll have to wait until we see him on tape. He’s a heck of an athlete though.
JG,
I predicted a 4.45, so that’s right in that area.
February 26, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Rogers Cromartie’s official time looks to be 4.33, while McKelvin and Jenkins both posted 4.38. So basically with all the top names running well, nobody probably moved that much.
4.49 is not too slow to play corner. My bet is Samuel couldn’t turn that kind of time. Cason had 20 reps on the bench, which is one of the highest among corners.
Anyone hear what Talib ran?
February 26, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Well a 4.49 is really good, and is a lot better than people figured he would run so I say we draft him. Lets trade down and take the man. Though 3 other corners really helped themselves. Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, and Leodis McKelvin all ran very good sub 4.4 40 yard dashes. They don’t show what Aqib Talib ran if he even ran the 40 at all. But if his time was decent then he will be a first round pick as well. So it is possible that Cason drops to the 2nd round still.
February 26, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Ok Tom so now that the 40’s have been run and all thats hoop plah is out of the way what do you see us doing? Is Cason a 1st rounder? I would love to steal him in the second round. I personaly think that if Cromartie ran his 40 as fast as this blog says he is a great prospect for the pats and I would say we take him before Cason because taking Cason early in the 1st round is a reach or at least thats way it seems. would you say Cromartie should be ranked as the # 1 CB right now?
February 26, 2008 at 4:18 pm
What I mean Tom is I like Cason but Cromartie has the size I want and the speed we need.
February 26, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Tom,
There are two problems with Cason’s time. First, I hate to break it to you but 4.49 is not particularly fast for a corner, and second it seems to me that the 40 times are all a little fast this year. There are a a few 4.2 somethings and that just doesn’t sound right for a mediocre draft class.
February 26, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Like I said before Kenny, I haven’t seen Cromartie play yet, so it’s unfair for me to rank him yet. I know he’s a great athlete but my guess is he’s no where near the polished player Cason is. That’s not saying he won’t be a great player, I just don’t know because I haven’t seen him on the field. Right now, I would probably rank him No. 2, assuming I like what I see on tape. He ran well and he looked great in the drills.
However, one guy I’m really down on is Talib. I thought he struggled against Missouri and Nebraska - the two best passing teams the Jayhawks played last year - and he really struggled in the drills. He doesn’t run fluidly at all and he needs to add a lot of strength. He’s way too skinny right now and not very strong (9 reps) and I feel NFL receivers will overpower him. I wouldn’t touch that guy at seven. My guess is when my ranking come out, Cason and Cromartie will be 1-2. They appear to be the cream of the crop at corner in my opinion.
Also, I think Cason will go in the 15-40 range (Pro Day results and personal interviews deciding how high), so he would be a possibility if the Pats trade down.
By the way, Brandon Flowers, who I don’t like but others have rated high, ran a 4.58. So if Cason is slow, I guess Flowers is moving to linebacker.
February 26, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Matt,
You are way off base my friend. 4.49 is fine for a corner with great instincts. My worry was he was SLOW, like a 4.8. Trust me, there is very, very little difference between a 4.39 and a 4.49. A lot depends on quickness and instincts. Now, there is a huge difference between 4.49 and a 4.85. The latter just means you’re slow. If you think a 4.49 is slow, I would suggest getting the top ten NFL corners out on a track and see how much faster they run.
The guy was advertised as slow. A 4.49 isn’t slow at all. Fabian Washington - the corner the Raiders drafted in the first-round a couple of years ago - ran a 4.29. Do you want him? Of course not because he’s fast and nothing else. Playing football is not about 40-speed. I would ask that you watch Cason play and tell me if you think he’s slow. So the guy from Troy ran a faster time. I’ll bet you anything he will never be as good as Cason. If you want all your corners to run fast, draft a bunch of guys like Ellis Hobbs. He’s fast. How is that working out for you?
February 26, 2008 at 5:10 pm
The 40 yard dash is such an overrated way to measure a player’s speed anyways. Jerry Rice ran like a 4.6 or 4.7 and he is the best receiver to play the game of football. Another example is our very own Wes Welker (my personal favorite receiver) who ran like a 4.7 as well and look at how productive he was this year and how important he is to our offense. The thing is the 40 yard dash shows you how fast a person can run a straight 40 yards coming from out of a track runner position while not wearing football pads. That does not translate to football speed at all. Add on the weight of the equipment and the fact that a player is rarely ever running a straight line (punt/kick coverage and fly routes are about the only time) and its completely misleading. Mendenhall is a good example, he runs a 4.4 on the track and he keeps that speed on the field because he is well built. McFadden does not run a 4.3 on the field, I saw him nearly get run down by Ali Highsmith against LSU and Highsmith ran like a 4.9. Not to mention players never come out of a stance like they do during the 40 yard dash. Wide Receivers are standing up, runningbacks are more in stance that is halfway between the receiver stance and the 3 point stance of a lineman. So the 40 yard dash is a useless way to really figure out just how fast somebody is on the football field. There is track speed like the 40 and what I call football speed or on-field speed. Cason has fantastic instincts, great character, and desire. His football speed is also good which is why Tom’s assessment of him is accurate. Cason is the best corner in the draft, period.
February 26, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Hobbs was fine for a third round pick. If you’re going to go first round, you need more.
I actually like Flowers better now that he’ll be available in the third round.
To me the biggest story of the combine (as it relates to NE) with McFadden and Long solidifying their spots and Dorsey and Ellis still top picks is the potential for Ryan to fall to #7. That would be huge for the Pats, since the Ravens would probably take him at #8. So anyone in the 12-16 range who wants the top QB might show interest trading up to #7. And that’s more than just one team — there are a few teams in that range that need a QB.
ALL of the corners people are talking about here look a lot better to me at 14 than at 7 (and they might all still be there), with the benefit of adding a second round pick in the middle of the round. You could draft two corners, and let them compete for the starting spot.
February 26, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Mike,
I have to respectfully disagree with you on Hobbs. He’s a great guy and someone I personally like but I think his play borders on awful. Not just for the plays we see him give up, but the way he forces the Patriots to play as a whole on defense. They are so worried about protecting Hobbs that he has to play 15-yards off a receiver and still needs safety help most of the time. I’m sorry but someone that fast shouldn’t need both a cushion and safety help over the top against every receiver in the NFL. You said he’s fine for a third-round pick. There are a lot of third-round picks in this league playing a heck of a lot better than Hobbs. Like I said, he’s a good guy but a liability on defense in my opinion.
February 26, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Tom,
I love Cason, as I have made abundantly clear in numerous other posts on this blog. I stayed up past midnight to watch him play and you don’t have to sell him to me. The point I was making, which I stated on this blog a few days ago, and Andy later agreed with, was that I think all the combine times are a little fast this year.
That being said, my point was that I would love the Pats to get Cason (I see him as Safety), but you’re not taking him with the 7th pick. If a slow time helps him slip a little to where they can some how slide back later in the first or maybe early second and get him, then maybe an average 40 time works in the Pats favor.
February 26, 2008 at 5:30 pm
That is possible. But I don’t think it will be the 14th pick (I don’t know if you were just using 14 as an example or if you were implying the Bears would trade up) because the Bears have 2 big needs. Quarterback and Runningback. I honestly believe if he is available (probably will be) they will take Mendenhall at 14 and then trade up into the late first round/early second round to grab Joe Flacco who they are said to be big fans of. Cedric Benson is a bust, he lacks heart and is not the answer for them at runningback so the beast that is Mendenhall an Illinois native and college star would be the best choice for them. And we all know just how bad Rex Grossman is. Honestly I feel like Kyle Orton is better than him, so don’t be surprised to see the Bears go for a QB in the early part of the draft. I don’t think Matt Ryan will fall to us at 7 though. The Falcons are in dire need of a quarterback. However they may try to hold off until round 2 but who knows.
February 26, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I don’t see Cason playing safety. His instincts at corner are too impressive to waste at the safety spot. I feel like Merriweather could develop into a good starting safety in a year or two right around the time that Rodney will be retiring. James Sanders is already a solid starter. He may not make big flashy plays like Ed Reed but he is a consistent player who tackles well and helps with run support. He won’t give up the big plays but he won’t exactly be the guy that leads the league in interceptions. Corner is an area of bigger need for us and I would love to see Cason in a Pats uniform this season at the cornerback slot.
February 26, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Tom — we can agree to disagree. Hobbs may not be the answer, but he’s at least average for a third round pick. There are plenty of third rounders who aren’t even in the league still, and plenty who don’t start. So he’s not great for a third rounder, but he’s probably right about average.
Wesley, some good points regarding the Bears. But I was talking the range — Carolina at 13, Bears 14, Lions 15. Bears could go a couple ways — there will be good RBs left in the second and third rounds.
And maybe Ryan doesn’t fall to 7. But 7 right now is a great pick. Because you’ve got Ryan, Long, Long, McFadden, Gholston, Dorsey, and Ellis. One of those players has to make it through to #7, and all are going to have value to someone below the Patriots.
February 26, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Mike,
I think the Patriots can win with Hobbs (obviously) but I think their defense would be even stronger with him playing in the slot. Keep this in mind. Dom Capers likes his corners to be very aggressive and be physical with receivers at the line of scrimmage. You have to wonder how this will affect Hobbs, who is used to giving receivers a big cushion. And there’s nothing wrong with disagreeing. That’s what sports is all about.
February 26, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Wesley I agree with what you are saying, Sanders may not be a ball hawk but he is still a valued mamber of the team but what I would like to add is that Sanders does not need to have the ball skills of a Ed Reed because in that one year or two year time frame that you are talking about Merriweather will develop into the ball hawk i know he is. That kid was always around the ball, Brandon makes breath taking hits and if he could hold onto the ball he would have had at least 4 or 5 picks as a rookie but he didnt hold on to it. I think the will change in coming seasons. I was all over Merriweather in last years draft and I called it early and knew we would draft him because I knew Reggie Nelson would not fall to us. So all and all I think the future of our SS and FS is pretty solid, we have the run stuffer in James Sanders and the ball hawker in Brandon Merriweather. At Corner though I have to say I am very impressed with the athletic ability of Rodgers-Cromartie and I really qwould like to take him in the first and Cason in the 2nd man that would set us up for a long time because i think both will be great in the nfl. Although I would also love to see us take Either Cason or Cromartie in round 1 and then trade up some how to draft Dan Conner out of Penn State but if the pats didnt trade up for Vilma they wont for Conner so thats kind of out of the question. All of this by the way would include them trading down because as i have said on the blog before we will not by any means pay some rookie top ten money. hell how can we justifie giving up that kind of money to a rook when we didnt even try and sign Samuel.
February 26, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Tom,
Great info in your responses. I gotta tell you the feedback you provide on lots of these prospects is great. You’re not afraid to disagree with all the talking heads on ESPN and NFL network. I found your opinion on Talib very intersting until last week almost every mock draft I saw had Talib going to NE at 7. Now I’m seeing a lot of them saying Gholston or Jenkins. Do you think they should stay and take one of those guys (or someone else) or move down and get a later 1st rounder w/a 2nd and maybe a later round pick? If this draft is deep wouldn’t it make sense to get more bang?
February 26, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Art,
I appreciate the comments. I would say right now it’s looking like Gholston if they stay at seven. He’s really the only prospect I see that fits a need, fits the Patriots system and is worthy of the seventh selection. The only other player I see fitting all three of those categories is Sedrick Ellis and I’m not sure if they would go D-line that high because of all the money they already have invested in that position.
February 26, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Because the Patriots just released Colvin I’m going to say Gholston will definitely be the guy they take at 7 if they can’t trade down because OLB is now a need position with little depth behind Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel. I wasn’t overly crazy about Gholston but he was downright impressive at the combine so I wouldn’t mind seeing the draft go like this:
1. Gholston
2. Cason (Trade up)
3. Goff
4. Cottam, Schmitt, or Forsett
February 26, 2008 at 9:34 pm
We gotta get that Schmitt guys just so we can see him toss Casale around after their bench press contest.
Tom, can you really knock out 225 over 26 times? If so, Fred might want to take a blood sample from you. They might need to get Andy Hart to talk to congress and dime you out like Petitte did to Roger. Just jokin’ but throwing weight like that around is impressive for an ol’ bastard like you.
February 26, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Art,
If the Human Head and and I trained for a month, we could probably both hit 30. I don’t really lift that heavy anymore so I would have to train but it would be a good showdown. That’s the one advantage of being short with stumpy arms. Girls don’t want anything to do with us be we can bench a lot. Yippee. However, if the Patriots select Gholston, I’m out. That guy was cranking out reps without breaking a sweat. I don’t want none of that.
February 26, 2008 at 10:30 pm
I never would have guessed the Human Head (Mr. Inappropriate) was a gym rat. That guys got to be a walking sexual harrassment suit in the office.
Are you guys going to keep the blog stuff going for the forseeable future? Since the Pats dumped two LBers today should we read into that and assume they’ve got their eyes on a Gholston type early? I don’t see a whole lot on the market when it comes to difference makers. What say you?
February 26, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Well the release of Lua wasn’t a big deal, but the loss of Colvin is big because that leaves us without any depth behind Thomas and Vrabel at the OLB position and it also means that Thomas won’t be moving back inside unless we pick up a real stud to take his spot outside (though I think its a waste of his talent to use him inside). Gholston could very well be an option, or possibly Keith Rivers depending on how his pro day goes. Though it always bothers me when a player decides not to perform at the combine, it tells me they are hiding something.
February 27, 2008 at 4:13 am
The releases have to be leading up to something…hopefully Moss signing. But they seemed to already have the cap space for that. So maybe something is in the works that required some maneuvering room.
And Tom — I certainly agree that Hobbs is a better fit guarding the slot.
February 27, 2008 at 11:34 am
Tom, even though Cason is polished? Doesn’t DRC or Talib have more upside? They’re bigger, faster and have better verticle leap than Cason.
February 27, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Physical upside doesn’t always result in consistent play. Look at Hobbs vs. Samuel. Hobbs has the physical advantage being faster but lacks the instincts. Instincts are the most important thing in a player and are things that cannot be taught. Either you have them or you don’t. Talib is not a physical corner and would not be a good fit for the Patriots. I’d rather see them take Mike Jenkins or Leodis McKelvin then Talib. Rodgers-Cromartie has the phsyical tools (though he could certainly add another 15 pounds to his frame) but now I’m waiting for Tom to view tape on him and offer his opinion.
February 27, 2008 at 3:38 pm
And I’m waiting for the Pats to ignore all the experts, draft someone I haven’t even thought of yet, and make it work better than I could possibly expect. Because that’s kind of what they do.
February 27, 2008 at 4:34 pm
That is exactly what they do, lettign Rosie go is a mistake unless we resign him because I thought AD was great playing inside LB I mean I know he has the tools to be on the outside but he was a great fit at inside and with out rosie he has to be on the outside.
February 27, 2008 at 5:19 pm
I’d like some opinions on a guy I really like which is Chevis Jackson.
February 27, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Matt,
Jackson is one of my sleepers at the corner position. He has great instincts and really closes on the ball well. Plus, he’s pretty physical from what I’ve seen. You will hear a lot of people use the word “speed” when talking about corners but with me it’s the word “instincts.” I think that’s the most important things, assuming you aren’t slow as dirt.
February 27, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Tom do you think Rosie will be back in a Patriots uni?
February 27, 2008 at 6:27 pm
I just think when you are successful in a conference like the SEC it gives you experience that the guys from some of those smaller schools have never had. All things being equal, I’ll take the big school guys every time.
February 27, 2008 at 7:39 pm
GR,
I would say a guy like DRC may have more upside because he’s raw but not Talib. He played in the Big 12. I could argue that with Cason’s feel for the game and intelligence, a coach like Belichick could make him an even better player with some direction.
Kenny,
No I don’t. I think Colvin’s days as a Patriot are over.
February 27, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Playing for a big school does not always mean that a player is better than another. Joe Flacco has the most upside out of all the quarterbacks in this draft and he played for the University of Delaware, which is a 1-AA school. Jerry Rice also played for a 1-AA college and he is the best wide receiver in the history of football. So you need to look at a players film in an unbiased manner regardless of what school he played for. However the combine then becomes more important for the lower division players because if they have good workouts along with them showing good instincts and technique on tape then that can project them into a 1st day pick.
February 27, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Well, if guys like Rosie are done I hope there is a good plan in place to get some younger guys in that LB corp. I’ve felt as though they’ve been sticking their fingers in the little leaks the last few years but the dam may burst if they don’t overhaul it soon.