PFW’s Final Patriots Mock Draft (For Real This Time)

April 27, 2007

What can I say? My mind has changed since Wednesday. Plus, it’s Friday night and I’m a loser who only cares about football, so I decided to put together one last Patriots mock before the real thing kicks off in a few hours. Hey, it’s better than talking to my fiancé. Again, I have no idea who the Patriots will draft, but it’s always fun to guess. So, for the absolute final time, here is our seven-round Patriots mock draft:

Round 1A

David Harris, LB Michigan – Jon Beason looks to have been a smokescreen. Harris is the player the Patriots really want and he would be a perfect fit for their defense. Harris was always around the football in college, both against the run and defending the pass. He had his most productive season as a senior when he registered 103 tackles and four sacks.

Harris is arguably the fastest of all the inside linebackers. He has the speed to run down receivers and running backs in the open field and moves well laterally sideline-to-sideline. While Patrick Willis is the best run stuffing inside linebacker in this class, Harris is the best in coverage. Because he runs like a safety, Harris has no problem covering tight ends and even slot receivers on occasion. Another quality Harris possesses is his ability to read and react. He diagnosis a play quickly and is usually in the hole before the ball carrier is. Harris is much faster on the football field than he is on a track and that shows up when you see him on tape.

Harris could come right in and contribute as a rookie before taking over the starting inside linebacker spot once Tedy Bruschi retires. All signs point to the Patriots selecting Harris if he’s still on the board at 24.

Round 1B

Chris Houston, CB Arkansas – Houston was the star of the Combine after running a 4.32 40-yard dash and doing 27 reps of 225 pounds. Some may think Houston is just a workout warrior but that’s not the case. In 2006, he went up against Dwayne Jarrett, Robert Meachem and Dwayne Bowe – all possible first round receivers – and held them to a combined 14 receptions for 168 yards and one touchdown. That’s pretty impressive considering all the hype surrounding those three receivers.

This pick will depend on what the Patriots think about Asante Samuel and his long-term future with the team. Houston can come in and play the slot as a rookie but he also has the skills to become a shutdown corner down the road, should New England lose Samuel. Houston is a great athlete with all the physical talent teams look for in a defensive back. Plus, playing his best against the toughest receivers he faced last year shows that Houston can hold up against NFL-caliber receivers.

Round 3

Josh Gattis, S Wake Forest - Gattis would be a steal for the Patriots here. He weighs 206 pounds, although Gattis has a thick build and really unloads on ball carriers. He’s a smart player who’s rarely out of position on the field. Gattis does a good job of covering the short middle of the field, something a lot of safeties struggle with.

A couple of reasons why Gattis doesn’t get a lot of national publicity are because he played for Wake Forest and he’s not a “wow” player. What I mean by that is when you see LaRon Landry play he wows you with his vicious hits and incredible speed in coverage. Gattis is more of a lunch pale-type player. He may not be flashy but Gattis is very consistent and reliable. He’s a leader on the field and a guy I believe can step right in and contribute as a rookie because of his intelligence.

Gattis is also a good special teams player. In 2005, he led the ACC with 15 special teams tackles. Gattis shows great instincts on the field and was the leader of a very good Wake Forest defense last year. We get a lot of e-mails referring to certain prospects as being a “Patriots-kind of player”. If you’re searching for a Patriots-kind of player (Intelligent, tough, versatile, team-first attitude), then look no further than Gattis. He reminds me a lot of former Bronco Steve Atwater with the way he plays. Gattis should be a quality starting safety in the NFL for the next 10 years. I think most teams would take that.

Aaron Rouse, the bone-jarring safety out of Virginia Tech, would be another good selection in this spot.

Round 4

Zak DeOssie, OLB Brown - Patriots fans would be ecstatic if the team could land local favorite DeOssie here. Getting DeOssie in Round 4 means New England would have added depth to four different positions on defense with players who can come in and contribute as rookies.

DeOssie has good size and speed and he did exactly what a player of his caliber at Brown should do: dominate. He finished his career with 308 tackles 36.5 tackles for a loss, 10.5 sacks and four interceptions, while playing both inside and outside linebacker.

After graduating from Brown and having a father in the NFL, no one is going to question DeOssie’s intelligence on the field. He needs to get better at beating blockers and covering quicker tight ends but DeOssie has all the intangibles the Patriots seek in a player. DeOssie should have a solid NFL career once he gets adjusted to the speed of the pro game. In New England, he could learn behind some great linebackers and be groomed to become a starter in two or three years, while being used on special teams and as a situational pass rusher until then.

Round 5

Chris Davis, WR Florida State – Davis was one of the most impressive receivers we saw on tape and that says a lot considering who was throwing him the football at Florida State. Davis is also a guy the Patriots have shown interest in leading up to the draft.

Davis comes out of his breaks very quickly, a quality the Patriots look for in their receivers. He’s explosive in the open field and Davis made a lot of tough catches on tape due to the awful quarterback play at Florida State. That’s the main reason why Davis’ production isn’t better. It’s hard for a receiver to put up big numbers when their quarterbacks can’t play.

One of the things I like most about Davis is he’s fearless going over the middle. He kind of reminds me of a faster version of Wes Welker. Despite his size, Davis will go into traffic and take a big hit. He has great hands and is an effective blocker for a smaller receiver.

Davis would be a good selection for the Patriots on Day 2 of the draft. His game is refined and I think he could come in and contribute as a slot receiver and kick returner as a rookie. Also, Davis’ best days are still ahead of him. Unlike Florida State, the Patriots actually have a quarterback who throws the ball pretty well.

Round 6A

DeAndre Jackson, CB Iowa State – Jackson is a mid-round prospect I’m extremely high on. He’s one of the most athletic corners available this year and he really has a nose for the football. Jackson showed great instincts on tape. He’s quick to react to the ball and knocks down a lot of passes. 

Jackson is a player who could be a real steal because he’s coming off an injury. He tore his ACL last year and missed the second half of his senior season. If Jackson didn’t get hurt, he might have been a second round prospect but now he could slip to the fifth or sixth round. That’s great value for a player with Jackson’s physical skills.

Besides being an impressive cornerback, Jackson is also an exceptional kick returner and special teams player. He’s someone who is always around the ball and is very similar to another former Cyclone, Ellis Hobbs. If he’s still on the board in the sixth round, Jackson could be reunited with Hobbs in New England. He’s a very talented corner and return man with a lot of upside.

Round 6B

Desmond Bishop, ILB Cal – Bishop is a player we’ve been projecting to the Patriots all along because we know he’s someone they’ve been showing interest in since before the Combine. Bishop is one of the better run-stuffing linebackers in the draft. He’s not blazing fast and won’t wow anyone running the 40, but when you see him on the field he just makes plays. Bishop led the Pac-10 with 124 tackles last year, so he’s proven to be a force against the run.

Bishop is that big, physical linebacker the Patriots haven’t had since Ted Johnson retired. He’s very productive playing in the box and Bishop has the size to take on bigger offensive linemen. He trimmed down to 239 pounds so he could improve his speed for pro scouts but Bishop’s natural playing weight is closer to 245 pounds, with the frame to carry 250.  He played some 3-4 at Cal but still needs to improve in coverage. At the Combine he said his favorite thing to do is take on big guards and throw them off to the side before making a tackle. Sounds like the kind of linebacker that would be a good fit in the Patriots scheme.

The combination of Harris and Bishop would greatly improve the depth at inside linebacker for the Patriots heading into the 2007 season.

Round 6C

Dwayne Wright, RB Fresno State - Wright is a big guy who can play that RB/FB hybrid position similar to Heath Evans and Patrick Pass. The former Bulldog is a powerful runner who wears down defenses between the tackles. He doesn’t have great speed but is a versatile player who can do a lot for a team. Wright’s ability to pound the ball and get the tough yards would be a nice complement to Laurence Maroney’s slashing running style.

Wright came back in 2006 after tearing the patellar tendon in his knee to rush for 1,462 yards and 11 touchdowns as a junior. He also caught 29 passes last season for Fresno State. Because he’s not very fast, Wright will probably never be an every-down back in the NFL. However, his ability to block, play special teams and be a short-yardage back makes him an intriguing prospect late in the draft.

Oregon State tight end Joe Newton is another possibility if he’s still available in the sixth round.

Round 6D

Ryne Robinson, WR Miami (Ohio) – Robinson is a late-round receiver I really like. He’s coming into the draft under the radar but Robinson was very productive in college and has impressive physical skills. As a junior, Robinson caught 75 passes for 1,119 yards and eight touchdowns. He had an even better senior season, finishing with 91 receptions for 1,178 yards and eight scores. He finished his career at Miami, Ohio averaging 14.3 yards per catch.

On tape, Robinson showed he’s fearless going over the middle and racked up a lot of yards after the catch. He has great hands and is also a crisp route runner. He’s not very big but Robinson is a tough guy who breaks a lot of tackles for his size. He’s a dangerous deep threat, although he turned a lot of short receptions into long gains as well. Robinson is also an explosive kick returner because he gets upfield quickly. In my opinion, Robinson is a big-time sleeper and would be a great selection by the Patriots in the later rounds of the draft.

Round 7

Chris Denman, OT Fresno State – Denman is the kind of late-round project the Patriots coaching staff loves to get its hands on. He began his college career at Fresno State as a defensive end. Since then, Denman has gained over 100 pounds. He’s a big, physical tackle who excels in the run game. Because he’s such a mauler, some people believe Denman will play guard at the pro level.

Denman is a raw prospect with upside and that’s something teams look for in the later rounds of the draft. Because he isn’t very quick, Denman may be better suited at guard in the Patriots system but he has the ability and upside to be a valuable reserve if the right coach (Dante Scarnecchia) gets a hold of him.


Draft Buzz - Friday Evening Update

April 27, 2007

-Adam Schefter of the NFL Network has reported that the rumored trade between the Broncos and Texans isn’t true. However, as we stated before, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. If Adrian Peterson is still on the board at 10, the Broncos will do everything possible to trade up and get him. We were told that the team believes if it surrounds young quarterback Jay Cutler with enough big-play weapons, they can make a strong run at the Super Bowl. Hence the interest in Peterson and Calvin Johnson – the two best offensive players in the draft. Expect the Broncos to make a lot of noise on Day 1 of the draft.

-Could the Raiders finally be making a good move? Well, no. Oakland appears to be settling in on overrated quarterback JaMarcus Russell. That means the Calvin Johnson sweepstakes will begin. The Lions will be entertaining plenty of offers from teams looking to move up and grab Johnson. Also, don’t rule out the Lions drafting Johnson then trading him. We’ve said from the start that the two teams most likely to trade up are the Bucs and Falcons. Either way, don’t expect Johnson to play for the Lions next year. Detroit wants to stockpile draft picks and they know the talented Johnson is the bait to get that done. Of course, if the Raiders had drafted either Matt Leinart or Jay Cutler last year instead of a safety, they wouldn’t be in this predicament.

-There’s been a lot of news coming out of New York lately. We heard the Jets were extremely interested in David Harris but a source we talked to today tells us that was mainly just to screw with the Patriots, who have interest in the Michigan linebacker. The source also said the player the Jets are really hoping to get at 25 is tight end Greg Olsen. While that’s entirely possibly considering New York’s current stable of tight ends, it would surprise me if the team went in that direction. Most of the Jets problems last year came on the defensive side of the ball, and that’s the area I thought they would try and fix early in the draft.

-The Chiefs are hoping Penn State OT Levi Brown slips to the 15-18 range. If he does, don’t be surprised if Kansas City moves ahead of the Giants to grab the big left tackle. Right now the Chiefs offensive line is in shambles and we’re told upgrading that position is the team’s top priority entering the draft.

That’s all for now. If I hear anything else tonight, I’ll post it. If not, I’ll be back tomorrow morning as I prepare to rip the Raiders for taking JaMarcus Russell.


Draft Buzz - Broncos/Texans Trade Update

April 27, 2007

It’s being reported that the Broncos and Texans have swapped first round picks, with Houston getting Denver’s second round selection as well. As PFW reported earlier in the day, the Broncos wanted to get up to 10 in case Adrian Peterson falls. With rumors circulating that Peterson may need surgery, the Broncos believe they will be able to get the star runner with the 10th overall pick. There are three players the Broncos are targeting here: Peterson, Patrick Willis and Amobi Okoye. But make no mistake about it, if Peterson is on the board when Denver picks, he will become a Bronco. If true, this is a great trade for Denver. They would be guaranteed to get an impact player and that player could be the top rated running back in the draft.

The Broncos are also rumored to be interested in Calvin Johnson. However, now that they’ve given away their second round pick, I don’t think they have enough ammo to trade up to the second spot. The Lions are asking for a lot and with the number of teams trying to get Johnson, I don’t see the Broncos making it up that high. My guess is they sit at 10 and grab one of the three players mentioned above. Then again, Matt Millen is an idiot, so anything is possible. The more pressing concern for Patriots fans is that the Broncos could leave Saturday with either Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson.

Keep in mind that this trade has not been confirmed by either team and is just a rumor at this point. However, we know these two teams have been talking for a while now and even if this report is false, a deal between the Broncos and Texans still has a chance to get done, even if it’s when Houston is on the clock.


Players on the Decline

April 27, 2007

Dwayne Jarrett, USC – You can’t overlook Jarrett’s production in college but NFL teams are getting scared away because he lacks speed. There’s a good chance Jarrett could fall out of the first round, especially if Anthony Gonzales goes in Round 1.

Levi Brown, OT Penn State – The player feeling the effects of Joe Staley’s raise is Brown. A lot of teams now have Staley ranked as the second best tackle in the draft behind Joe Thomas. That means Brown could slip all the way down to the Giants at 20.

Troy Smith, QB Ohio State – Has anyone heard or seen the Heisman Trophy winner lately? Neither have we. With the ascension of quarterbacks like Drew Stanton, John Beck, Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb, Smith may have to wait until Sunday to hear his name called.

Michael Bush, RB Louisville – We’ve been saying Bush is a second-day pick all along and the e-mailers have been killing us. Guess what? Bush isn’t going to get drafted in the first three rounds, so Louisville fans will just have to live with that realization.

Michael Pittman, RB Ohio State – Speaking of running backs I don’t like, Pittman is at the top of that list. When I watch Pittman, I see a backup NFL running back. After some early buzz, Pittman could now fall into Day 2 of the draft. He just doesn’t have the ability to be successful in the NFL as an every-down back.

Zach Miller, TE Arizona State – Before the Combine, Miller was considered by many to be the top tight end in the draft. Now he’ll be lucky to get selected in Round 2. Not many players have fallen as far as Miller has since the draft process began.

Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas – I’ve never been a big fan of Anderson and teams are beginning to share a similar opinion about him. The 49ers are interested in Anderson at 11 but if he gets past them, Anderson could have a longer than expected wait on draft day.

Quentin Moses, DE Georgia – Talk about falling off the map. Moses was once considered a first round prospect but I imagine teams did what I did: they watched tape on him. That’s the most likely reason for his decline because Moses was one of the least impressive prospects I watched at any position. He’ll have to hope a team takes a chance on him in the third round.

Buster Davis, LB Florida State – Unfortunately for Davis, size matters. He’s a physical player who was productive in college but teams are concerned that he’s too small to play inside at the pro level. I still think Davis could go in the second round, but don’t be surprised if he falls into Round 3.

I’ll be back early this evening with more draft buzz. Andy Hart and I are going on The Mike Felger Show at 3:20 Eastern time to teach Felger a thing or two about football. At least two people on that panel will know what they’re talking about. I’ll let you decide who those two people are.


Players on the Rise

April 27, 2007

Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan – Once thought to be a late-first round pick, Staley could now go as high as No. 10 to the Houston Texans. No one has risen up draft boards faster over the last month than Staley.

Brandon Meriweather, S Miami – Now that he has cleared up concerns about his character, Meriweather is cementing his spot as a top 25 selection.

Darrelle Revis, CB Pitt – Revis has emerged from the group of first round corners as the top player at that position on a lot of team’s draft boards. Most people believe Revis will now be the first cornerback selected in the draft.

David Harris, LB Michigan – It’s funny that LaMarr Woodley and Alan Branch dominated in virtually every game they played last season and Harris is the one making the late push. Harris went from an early second round pick to going in the 18-28 range.

Justin Harrell, DT Tennessee – Harrell has fully recovered from a bicep injury he suffered last year and could now land in the first round. Harrell could benefit from the shortage of blue chip defensive tackles come draft day.

Drew Stanton, QB Michigan State – Stanton really impressed NFL scouts over the last couple of months and if the Raiders pass on JaMarcus Russell like they should, don’t be surprised if they trade back up into the first round to grab Stanton.

Craig Davis, WR LSU – Looking for a possible first round surprise? We’ve talked to some people who think Davis is going to be a better pro receiver than Dwayne Bowe. Don’t be shocked if Davis sneaks into the bottom of Round 1, possibly to the Colts.

Josh Wilson, CB Maryland – There’s a good chance that four cornerbacks will be drafted in Round 1. However, that number could go up to five if there’s an early run on corners. Wilson is moving up the charts and the Saints, Patriots, Ravens and Colts have all shown interest in him.

Usama Young, CB Kent State - Young is another cornerback on the upswing. Once considered a late-round selection, Young could now hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots grab him at some point. Dean Pees recruited Young when he was the head coach at Kent State.

I’ll have the players who are slipping a little bit later in the day.


Draft Buzz - David Harris Update

April 27, 2007

-Two players really picking up steam as the draft nears are Pittsburgh CB Darrelle Revis and Michigan ILB David Harris. These are two players many mock drafts have going to the Patriots but there’s a chance that neither Revis nor Harris will be on the board when the Pats select. Actually, we’re hearing that Revis will be the first cornerback taken on Saturday.

-As for Harris, he now seems to be the Patriots top choice. After all the rumored interest in Jon Beason this offseason, Harris appears to be the guy News England is targeting in the first round. Pro Football Talk broke the news that the Pats would select Harris earlier this week and from everything we’re hearing, the rumor has legs. Harris would actually be a much better natural fit in the 3-4 than Beason and might be so high on the Patriots wish list that they could take him at 24.

PFW talked to Harris at the NFL Combine and here is what he had to say about playing in the 3-4 and the possibility of becoming a member of the Patriots:

http://www.patriots.com/mediacenter/index.cfm?pid=24730&pcid=81&special_section=Draft2007&ac=audionewsdetail

-Patriots fans better hope the Browns draft Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson. If Cleveland passes on Peterson, he could slide to 10 where the Denver Broncos are said to be ready to trade up and get him. The thought of Peterson in that Broncos backfield is frightening. And for those wondering why Denver would make the move after signing Travis Henry need to remember that Henry has a history of injuries and Mike Shanahan likes to have a deep stable of backs. Expect the Broncos to be very active on draft day.

-Word around the league is the Steelers want to trade down because they’re having trouble deciding on which player to select at 15. Some in the Steelers organization want Penn State LB Paul Posluszny, while others believe he would be a reach that high. There seems to be some dissention in Steel Town these days, so it will be interesting to see how the team handles its first draft without Bill Cowher since 1991.

-We might as well just list every team in the NFL as interested in Calvin Johnson. The latest rumor has the Vikings possibly moving up to No. 3 if both the Raiders and Lions pass on the stud receiver. Seeing that both Al Davis and Matt Millen can’t pick their nose, never mind a good player, there’s a good chance Johnson will still be on the board when the Browns pick comes up. If that’s the case, Cleveland will be getting so many calls it may have to plug in a couple more of those helmet phones to field all the inquiries. In our opinion, the Bucs and Falcons are the two teams most likely to land Johnson.

-The Julius Jones to Buffalo rumors are heating up. The Cowboys are believed to be asking for two picks, including a 2nd rounder for Jones. Meanwhile, Buffalo won’t go any higher than a third rounder at the moment. Still, this is a deal that has a good chance of getting done on draft day from what we’re hearing.

Check back later for more draft buzz.